With or without Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall, President Macky Sall would get 58%. This observation is from the statistician and economist engineer Moubarack Lô, who became famous in 2012 by predicting the victory of Macky Sall in the Senegalese presidential elections at a time when analysts were expecting a duel in the second round between President Wade and one of his historical opponents (Moustapha Niasse of AFP or Tanor Dieng of PS).
Since then, polls conducted by the prime minister’s adviser are expected with much apprehension, on the side of the opposition as of power, Mubarack having kept his scientific independence. Regarding the last Senegalese presidential election, which saw the tenant of the coveted Palais de Roum rally in the first round, Lô’s statistics are categorical: “Macky Sall is between 57% and 58% since October 2018, while the sum of Ousmane Sonko and Idrissa Seck is less than 20% over the entire period, excluding voters undecided or who do not pronounce “.
Working on a sample of 3,000 to 6,000 people, the poll estimates that, all things being equal, Idrissa Seck would have had 5% of the votes (instead of 20,51% at the end of the presidential elections of February 24th), in the scenario a participation of Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall in the election.
This corresponds to a postponement of votes from potential Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall voters of 15.5 percentage points obtained during the election. Idrissa Seck is therefore the main beneficiary of the invalidation of Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall.
Other things being equal, Ousmane Sonko would have had 7% of the votes (instead of 15.67% at the end of February 24th), in the scenario of a participation of Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall in the election. This corresponds to a vote deferral of just over 8 percentage points from potential voters Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall. Ousmane Sonko was able to double her score, when the applications of Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall were invalidated.
Macky Sall’s scores for the four groups: “women”, “northern”, “over 50” and “without formal education” are at least 5 points higher than the national rate. On the other hand, in all the categories, “Man”, “18-34 years old”, “Regions of Dakar-Thiès”, “BAC +”, his voting intentions are at least 5 points lower than his national score. It achieves its worst rate in the BAC + group with a steadily declining level and that reaches the evening of the election a negative gap of 26 points with its national score. Over the entire period, the polarization of Macky Sall’s sympathizers is increasing. Indeed, he is continually making progress on his national score in his captive groups and is declining in his hostile groups.
The hostile groups of Macky Sall are almost perfectly captive categories of Ousmane Sonko. Indeed, from January 2019, it outperforms its national level by at least 5 points in the group, “18-34 years”, and by at least 10 points in the three categories, “18-34 years”, “Having started a secondary cycle”; “South zone”. On the other hand, he performed worst in Macky Sall’s captive categories “50 years and over”, “no formal education”, “North Central and East zones” and “Women”. He improved on Macky Sall’s image. continually its scores in groups where it is already very high compared to its national level.
According to Mubarack, President Macky Sall would retain his score if the two failed players, namely Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall, had taken part in the vote.
