The digital revolution is one of the keys to inclusive growth and job creation in Africa
The latest edition of the Africa’s Pulse report, released today, is downgrading sub-Saharan Africa’s growth to 2.3% in 2018 from 2.5% in 2017. For the fourth year in a row, The economy is growing at a slower pace than population growth and, despite more favorable regional forecasts for 2019, which are forecast to rebound to 2.8%, growth has not been able to break the 3% mark since 2015. The semi-annual report of The World Bank’s African Economic Outlook also examines the impact of fragility on growth in sub-Saharan Africa and the role that the digital economy could play in revitalizing the continent.
“The digital transformation can bring sub-Saharan Africa an annual increase in growth of almost two percentage points and a drop of almost one percentage point a year in poverty,” said Albert Zeufack, chief economist at the Bank. for Africa. “This is a revolution that will really change the situation in Africa. ”
While reflecting the uncertainty of the global economy, this stronger than expected decline is also due, more and more, to political and regulatory uncertainties and fragility. It also reflects macroeconomic instability, including poor debt management, inflation and deficits. All these factors clearly disadvantage some countries. It also contradicts the good performances of several smaller economies, which are constantly growing.
In Nigeria, growth was 1.9% in 2018, up from 0.8% in 2017, thanks to a slight recovery in the non-oil sector. South Africa emerged from the recession in the third quarter of 2018, but growth remained sluggish, at 0.8%, throughout the year as political uncertainties discouraged investment. Angola, the third-largest economy in the region, remained in recession, with activity weighed down by continued weakness in oil production.
In some resource-rich countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Niger, growth is picking up, supported by the upturn in mining output and commodity prices, as well as the rebound in agricultural and agricultural production. public infrastructure investments. Elsewhere, such as Liberia and Zambia, growth has remained subdued, with investors remaining wary of continued inflation and debt. In the countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the recovery is continuing, but remains fragile, with reforms aimed at reducing fiscal and external imbalances having stalled in some countries. Finally, economies that are less reliant on natural resources, such as Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda, as well as several countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union, including Benin and Côte d’Ivoire, posted strong performances. in 2018.
The Africa’s Pulse report also notes that the fragility of a small number of countries deprives sub-Saharan Africa of more than half a percentage point of growth per year, the equivalent of 2.6 percentage points. percentage in five years.
“As the factors of fragility have evolved over time, solutions to address them must adapt,” said Cesar Calderon, Senior Economist at the World Bank and lead author of the report. “More than ever, countries have the opportunity to turn the page on fragility by cooperating with each other to fight instability, violence and climate change. “
