Togo’s public debt would amount to CFAF 2,555.45 billion as of December 31, 2020, or 59.42% of GDP calculated after the GDP rebasing work completed in October.
According to the data at the date considered, the public debt portfolio is less exposed to exchange rate risk. It is made up of 80.50% of debts denominated in non-fluctuating currencies (FCFA and Euro) and is influenced by the fluctuations of certain major currencies such as the US dollar (6.88%), the yuan renminbi CNY (6.35% ), Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), IDB and ADB units of account (5.11%).
For the year 2020, it is indicated, the financing need stands at CFA F 695.41 billion excluding the proceeds of privatization. As of December 31, disbursement requests sent to donors amounted to CFAF 83.58 billion, or 90.39% of the forecasts entered in the Public Investment Program (PIP).
“Moderate” risk of over-indebtedness
In the new edition of its annual document entitled “The Economic Outlook in Africa” published in March 2021, the African Development Bank (AfDB) notes that the risk of the country’s debt distress “is moderate”, and that “the fiscal consolidation implemented work from 2017 to 2019 and the restructuring of the debt to extend the maturities of the loans made it possible to reduce the debt / GDP ratio from 80% in 2016 to 68.67% in 2019 ”. Domestic debt accounts for 65.8% of outstanding public debt, according to the Abidjan-based institution.
“Thanks to other technical adjustments and a further extension of maturities with certain creditors in the context of the pandemic, the debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 57.8% in 2020. The recovery of the economy and public investment as well as the payment of deferred maturities will increase the debt ratio to 60% of GDP in 2021, before the latter stabilizes at around 57% of GDP over the period 2022–2025. The debt sustainability analysis carried out recently by the Togolese government indicates a moderate risk of external debt distress, but a high risk of overall public debt distress, due to the high level of domestic debt ”, we also read in the document. of 194 pages.
