The Russian-Ukrainian war, which began on February 24, 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, does not only have an impact in Europe. Its repercussions are also expected in Africa where the leading economy, Nigeria, could fear a rise in the inflation rate, which is already difficult to control.
A major consumer of durum wheat mainly imported from Russia, the continent’s largest market could suffer the effects of the blockage in the supply chain. Between January and September 2021, the West African giant imported it worth more than 128.1 billion naira (over 300 million USD).
Durum wheat is the third most consumed cereal in Nigeria, but local production covers only 1% of needs, according to data from the central bank (CBN). The lack of supply could therefore lead to a further spike in prices on the local market, which could also affect the prices of other products, including bread and wheat semolina, among others.
Already, Nigeria, which is not known for controlling inflation, saw its rate rise to 15.60% in January, from 15.63% in December and 15.4% in November, according to the data. from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At double digits since 2016, the inflation rate is (already very) often driven by food inflation which fell to 17.13% during the month of January 2022, against 17.37% recorded the previous month. Main reasons, rising prices of bread and cereals, among others.
