By Abshir Aden Ferro, CEO Fort Roche Group
Somalia has officially excluded Ethiopia from the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on January 1, 2025. This decision, announced during a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on December 27, 2024, is rooted in Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland and broader regional tensions.
This marks a significant departure from Ethiopia’s longstanding role in Somali peacekeeping efforts. Ethiopia has been a core participant in missions dating back to AMISOM’s launch in 2007. While the Ankara Declaration, signed in November 2024, sought to repair ties between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Somalia ultimately opted to chart a new path.
In preparation for AUSSOM, Somalia has secured 11,000 troops through agreements with Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti, and Burundi, with Uganda contributing over half the forces. Ethiopia’s exclusion creates a gap in traditional regional collaboration.
Diplomatic Shifts
Somalia’s decision reflects an evolving geopolitical alignment. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent visits to Eritrea in November and December 2024 reinforced ties with President Isaias Afwerki and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt, which has expressed interest in AUSSOM, may leverage this shift to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa. Analysts suggest that these diplomatic developments directly influenced Somalia’s pivot away from Ethiopia.
Funding Challenges
Despite troop commitments, AUSSOM faces a major financial obstacle. A hybrid funding model proposed by the UK seeks to allocate seventy-five percent of the mission’s budget to UN-assessed contributions, with the remaining twenty-five percent funded by international donors. While this model garnered support from Russia, China, the EU, and others, the United States rejected it during the UNSC meeting on December 27, citing concerns over its deviation from UN Resolution 2719 and its lack of financial sustainability.
The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council has warned that unresolved funding issues could undermine AUSSOM’s launch and stability in Somalia.
Implications for the Region
1. Shifting Alliances in the Horn of Africa: Somalia’s exclusion of Ethiopia signals a shift in regional power dynamics. Alignments with Eritrea and Egypt could increase Eritrea’s influence in Somali security efforts, given its history of training Somali forces. Advance Egypt’s strategic goals, particularly countering Ethiopia’s dominance and addressing Nile River disputes.
2. Impact on Ethiopia: Ethiopia’s exclusion diminishes its role as a regional stabilizer, potentially straining its relationships with Somalia and Eritrea. Internally, this may refocus Ethiopia’s attention on its domestic challenges, including the Tigray peace process.
3. AUSSOM’s Operational Viability: Funding delays could impair troop deployments and logistical support, weakening the mission’s ability to counter Al-Shabaab effectively.
4. Regional Security Risks: A weakened AUSSOM could allow Al-Shabaab to exploit the vacuum, threatening Somalia and its neighbors while worsening humanitarian crises in the region.
5. AU’s Credibility and Leadership: AUSSOM’s success is critical for the AU’s reputation. Failure to address funding and operational issues could undermine future AU-led peacekeeping efforts.
Timeline of Key Events
• 2007: Ethiopia joins AMISOM to combat Al-Shabaab.
• April 2022: AMISOM transitions to ATMIS.
• December 2023: UN Resolution 2719 proposes sustainable funding mechanisms for AU missions.
• November 2024: Somalia excludes Ethiopia from AUSSOM despite signing the Ankara Declaration.
• November–December 2024: Somali President visits Eritrea twice, aligning with Eritrea and Egypt.
• December 27, 2024: Somalia confirms Ethiopia’s exclusion; the US rejects the hybrid funding model.
• January 1, 2025: AUSSOM officially replaces ATMIS.
Ethiopia’s exclusion from AUSSOM represents a defining moment in the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s realignment with Eritrea and Egypt highlights shifting alliances, while unresolved funding challenges cast doubt over AUSSOM’s operational success. As the mission prepares to replace ATMIS, its ability to stabilize Somalia and counter Al-Shabaab depends on overcoming these obstacles. The stakes for Somalia, the AU, and the international community are immense, with regional stability hanging in the balance.
