West Africa Rating Agency (WARA) assigns, for the first time, the following sovereign ratings to four states in the WAEMU zone, on its regional scale:
• Republic of Benin: A-/Stable/w-3
• Republic of Burkina Faso: BBB-/Stable/w-4
• Republic of Côte d’Ivoire: A/Stable/w-3
• Republic of Guinea-Bissau: BB-/Stable/w-5
Simultaneously, on its international scale, WARA assigns these four States the following sovereign ratings:
• Republic of Benin: iB+/Stable/iw-5
• Republic of Burkina Faso: iB/Stable/iw-6
• Republic of Côte d’Ivoire: iBB-/Stable/iw-5
• Republic of Guinea-Bissau: iCCC+/Stable/iw-6.
Republic of Benin: the rating of the Republic of Benin on the WARA regional scale (A-/Stable/w-3) is underpinned by its proactive structural economic policy, improving governance indicators, public debt under control and its position as a sub-regional commercial hub. On the other hand, its international competitiveness, its banking sector and the high elasticity of its macroeconomic performance to that of Nigeria remain constraints.
Republic of Burkina Faso: the rating of the Republic of Burkina Faso on the WARA regional scale (BBB-/Stable/w-4) is fueled by the prudent nature of the short-term economic policies of its authorities, particularly in terms of public debt , under control. Structural economic growth is robust, reinforced by sound governance. On the other hand, the security and social challenges are intense, as are the demands for economic diversification.
Republic of Côte d’Ivoire: the rating of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire on the WARA regional scale (A/Stable/w-3) is based on the size of its economy (40% of sub-regional GDP), its diversification high and the very sustained pace of its growth, despite health constraints and the volatility of commodity prices. On the other hand, political uncertainties remain recurrent and electoral periods are always feverish and delicate moments. Public debt is under control.
Republic of Guinea-Bissau: the rating of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau on the WARA regional scale (BB-/Stable/w-5) is constrained by a small economy, highly dependent on the cashew sector , a degree of competitiveness and attractiveness limited by a tumultuous political history although in the process of stabilization a priori, a growing public debt and very perfectible governance indicators. That said, the Bissau-Guinean economy has considerable potential, particularly in the mining, logistics and tourism sectors.
The methodology that WARA uses for the rating of these four States of the sub-region is the sovereign rating methodology, first published on July 15, 2012, revised in January 2021, and available on the WARA website.
